Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Vedanta, Coal India, ICICI Bank, PowerGrid, HCL Tech and Bajaj Finance, rising up to 2.65 per cent.
India is more insulated to Fed-related volatility than other emerging markets due to its better economic fundamentals
Domestic fund houses are of the view that the US Fed's status quo stance on rates is a positive indication for RBI to lower its lending rates.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
With an expected earnings growth of 15 per cent, benchmark index Nifty 50 may hit 24,500 level by December 2024 and move further to surpass the level of 26,500 by December 2025, Emkay Investment Managers said on Tuesday. The 50-share Nifty settled at 22,888.15 on Tuesday. In the previous day, it hit a new lifetime peak of 23,110.80.
Even if the central bank doesn't pull the trigger later, it is still expected to by the end of the year.
Fundraising activity in the debt market is gaining momentum ahead of the festival season. Several non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) are planning to raise at least Rs 5,560 crore in the next two days by issuing bonds, with a greenshoe size of Rs 6,370 crore. Ajay Malglunia, managing director and head of investment grade group at JM Financial, said, "The market likes certainty, the market will gain clarity after the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy.
'We are confident that over the next few years the government will strike a fine balance between populist measures and growth, and manage coalition partners well.'
Markets end in red; bluechips struggle to keep pace.
Axis Bank, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and Bajaj Finance were among the other major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India were among the winners.
Gold is up 0.8 per cent for the week, after hitting a near-two-week high earlier in the week.
The risk of a collision between the Federal Reserve and the markets grew on Friday after Fed governor Randall Kroszner made it clear that the US central bank was not planning to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting, but was largely ignored by investors.
The rate hike in the future is set to be 'calibrated and cautious'.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Benchmark equity indices climbed nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday on buying in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. Investors are eyeing the two important events lined up ahead -- the interim budget and the US Fed interest rate decision -- to derive further cues from. Recovering all the early lost ground, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 612.21 points or 0.86 per cent to settle at 71,752.11.
Fed is still concerned about weak export growth.
At the same time, however, officials at the central bank lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate, evidence of slightly diminished expectations for a nation climbing out of a severe crisis and struggling with demographic headwinds like declining labor force participation.
NITI is trying to partner with other knowledge institutions.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, NTPC, Power Grid, Titan, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries and UltraTech Cement were the biggest gainers. In contrast, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards.
Asian emerging market stock prices did see a bounce post Fed-talk.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, Titan, Reliance Industries, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and ITC were the major gainers.
The next policy meeting will be in mid-June, when the panel will be joined by Stanley Fischer, the former Bank of Israel governor whose nomination to the Fed's board was confirmed on Wednesday by the US Senate.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which decides on rates, struck a positive note, saying economic activity had continued to pick up in recent months and the housing sector is improving.
From the Sensex basket, Sun Pharma, Maruti, Power Grid, Titan, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services and Nestle were the gainers.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
Of the eight RBI governors who have held office since the 1991 economic liberalisation, Bimal Jalan had the longest stint and S Venkitaramanan, the shortest. Current Governor Shaktikanta Das will overtake Bimal Jalan before completing his second term in December, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Both candidates have shifted from their traditional constituencies - Sadhotra from Marh and Sharma from Akhnoor - after these two segments were reserved for Scheduled Castes.
The State Bank of India told the Supreme Court on Thursday it has provided all details of the electoral bonds in its possession to the Election Commission.
Month-end dollar demand from oil companies mainly affected the rupee value against the US currency, a forex dealer said.
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
Markets now expect the Fed to normalise rates gradually.
The Sensex and Nifty spiralled lower for the fourth session on the trot on Wednesday as investors remained on edge ahead of US inflation data, which will give clues on the Federal Reserve's policy tightening trajectory. Unabated selling by foreign institutional investors and a jump in crude prices also weighed on sentiment, traders said. Despite a firm start, the 30-share BSE Sensex failed to carry forward the momentum and ended at 54,088.39, lower by 276.46 points or 0.51 per cent. During the day, it tumbled 845.55 points to 53,519.30.
Global liquidity expected to continue amid ECB stimulus
The central bank also left the benchmark rates unchanged in the range of 0 to 0.25 per cent. The Federal Open Market Committee which decides on the key rates has retained the same near zero and said economic conditions warrant 'exceptionally low levels' of federal fundsfor a longer period.
There will very little direct impact from the US Fed's rate hike this time, as we are well prepared both to handle liquidity, outflow of FII funds and managing our currency. But that doesn't mean India will be out of the woods anytime soon, says M V Subramanian.
An expected withdrawal of FIIs from the market likely to weaken the rupee against the dollar.
